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Strategy, variance, and study method

Practical theory, population tendencies, and how to tell a real read from noise.

September 23, 2026 · 2 min read · Variance

How big are downswings, really?

A winning player can lose for a long time. Here's what normal variance looks like at a 5 bb/100 win rate, and why your sample says less than you think.

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September 20, 2026 · 2 min read · Exploits

One hand is not a read

Why a single showdown rarely justifies a big adjustment, and how to size your exploits to the evidence you actually have.

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